It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock's new book . . . that people who make prediction their business--people who appear as experts on television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables--are no better than the rest of us. When they're wrong, they're rarely held accountable, and they rarely ad...(展开全部)

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He eva...(展开全部)

菲利普•E•泰特洛克（Philip E. Tetlock），耶鲁大学心理学博士，现为宾夕法尼亚大学心理学和管理学教授，主要研究兴趣包括：决策与判断、社会压力的应对方式等。本书为其代表性著作，获2006年美国政治科学协会的罗伯特•莱恩最佳政治心理学著作奖、伍德罗•威尔逊最佳政府、政治学或国际事务著作奖以及2008年哈罗德•拉斯韦尔政治心理学杰出科学贡献奖等。 译者： 季乃礼，南开大学周恩来政府管理学院教授。出版专著《三纲六纪与社会整合》、《哈贝马斯政治思想研究》，教材《政治心理学导论》，发表论文40多篇。近年来主要从事西方政治心理学理论的梳理，以及政治心理学的本土化研究。

It's Not How Good You Are, It's How Good You Want to Be is a handbook of how to succeed in the world - a pocket 'bible' for the talented and timid to make the unthinkable thinkable and the impossible possible. The world's top advertising guru, Paul Arden, offers up his wisdom on issues as diverse as problem solving, responding to a brief, communicating, playing your cards right...(展开全部)

This is how a family keeps a secret…and how that secret ends up keeping them. This is how a family lives happily ever after…until happily ever after becomes complicated. This is how children change…and then change the world. This is Claude. He’s five years old, the youngest of five brothers, and loves peanut butter sandwiches. He also loves wearing a dress, and dreams of being ...(展开全部)

This is how a family keeps a secret…and how that secret ends up keeping them. This is how a family lives happily ever after…until happily ever after becomes complicated. This is how children change…and then change the world. This is Claude. He’s five years old, the youngest of five brothers, and loves peanut butter sandwiches. He also loves wearing a dress, and dreams of being ...(展开全部)

It is what it is (or...Are we done yet?) What’s your deliverable? It’s a common question, as crass as it is self-evident. We deliver Design…24/7. But it’s a strange word – deliverable – with so many embedded assumptions. Someone else demands, requires, needs, wants, and ultimately pays (or doesn’t), but we always deliver. The verb makes sense, it’s the noun that’s the problem: ...(展开全部)

Wendell Jaffe looks great for a dead man He's been six feet under for five years ago--until his former insurance agent spots him at a dusty resort bar in Mexico. Now California Fidelity wants its insurance money back. Can P.I. Kinsey Millhone get on the case?Just two months earlier, Jaffe's widow pocketed $500,000 in insurance benefits after Jaffe went overboard. Was his "pseu...(展开全部)

Ms. Grafton writes a smart story and wraps it up with a wry twist.THE NEW YORK TIMES BOOK REVIEWWendell Jaffe has been dead for five years--until his former insurance agent spots him in a dusty resort bar. Now California Fidelity wants Kinsey Millhone to track down the dead man. Just two months before， his widow collected on Jaffe s $500，000 life insurance policy--her only lega...(展开全部)

"J" is for Jaffe: Wendell Jaffe, dead these past five years. Or so it seemed until his former insurance agent spotted him in the bar of a dusty little resort halfway between Cabo San Lucas and La Paz. ""In truth, the facts about Wendell Jaffe had nothing to do with my family history, but murder is seldom tidy and no one ever said revelations operate in a straight line. It was m...(展开全部)